With all due respect to the Prime Minister, perhaps he should focus less on promoting the dubious notion of “safety”, which is so often used as an excuse for censoring others opinions, and more on upholding the fundamental human right of free speech.

There are 64 programmed Bitcoin halvings. This is #4. If mining continues at the current rate of 210k blocks every ~4 yrs (the algorithm is designed to achieve that rate), the last halving would not take place until 2140 when the mining reward will be approx. zero.

Another Scott Alexander 'Bay House Party' report with faux-Chaucer and pity for none save, perhaps, 'a young woman in round-rimmed glasses and a bright red t-shirt saying WUHAN INSTITUTE OF VIROLOGY - SCIENCE THAT REPLICATES'. Recommended::
astralcodexten.com/p/ye-olde-bay-…

Uses a large text database to estimate distance weights for the gravity model: seems an AI could be well suited to do more of this. Perhaps the Elephantine or Oxyrhynchus papyri? Or even the Vindolanda tablets? Palmyrene inscriptions? Are these collections rich enough in data?

What I did not mention (but should have) is prob. the most important lesson from Nat Friedman's talk. The Vesuvius Challenge has devised/is refining an algorithm for public discovery competitions that will be one of its most valuable contributions to Science (and Classics, of course).

Australia was in a recession throughout 2023, with GDP/person falling in all four quarters.

IMO we will come out of recession this year, but the economy will remain weak. Productivity has been stagnant for eight years, which is the longest period on record.

We need tax cuts.

“HAL, it’s simply not true that Snibbo Tonic accounted for the bipedal gait of early primates!” “Yes, I’m sure you’re right, Dave. It does sound like a promotional message inserted in my reply, doesn’t it?”. “Well, just cut it out, will you!?” “I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t do that.”

Not goofy at all! A really interesting report of the inspiration (Philip Matyszak!), modest beginnings (pup-tents!), fear of embarrassment, and galactic ambitions of the Vesuvius Challenge founders & team. My guess is the galaxy will be won & the ancient past restored pretty soon.

Excellent summary of Trump vs the Impossible Trinity.

'The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives heatwaves and floods across the globe but...not one of the 23 Climate Models can tell you whether 2025 will be La Nina or El Nino, let alone 2045. We’re in the chicken-entrail days of climate forecasting.'::joannenova.com.au/2024/04/climat…

If governments like that of Victoria prevent new gas coming to the market and also increase electricity prices by requiring high cost renewables, then we deindustrialise. Qenos collapse puts jobs, supply chains at risk theaustralian.com.au/business/minin…

I could have put this (profound idea) better. How about: 'Nature abhors the random.'?

Contains a fascinating (but brief) discussion of Frank Plumpton Ramsey's (1925) discovery/theorem that in any large and seemingly disordered system, there must exist pockets of organization and regularity. That is, complete disorder is impossible.

'Actually putting NATO forces directly in conflict with Russian forces, I think that would be a dangerous escalation.' But not in the case of Iran. Cameron added that air-defence (Patriot missiles) was more effective than planes against drones::lbc.co.uk/news/david-cam…

Currency devaluation as a way to reduce the trade deficit: A game economists know All Too Well
My piece today on this Forbes forbes.com/sites/christin…

Our current approach to supporting #Ukraine is a strategy for defeat. Russia is beatable, and has demonstrated weakness across multiple domains that can be exploited. There is a moral and strategic imperative to give Ukraine the weapons to do so. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…

E. Ostrom showed that collective-choice arrangements that allow users to modify a Commons' rules over time increase their buy-in and accountability. $in¢lair Davidson looks at and distinguishes on-chain and off-chain DAO governance models, evaluating their effectiveness.

Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist

Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

🔹 The first is the level of resistance and national

As BILD journalist Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 notes:

“Germany is delivering 3 out of its 12 Patriot missile defense batteries. The U.S. has delivered 0 out of 60.”

Same thing with F-16s. The Netherlands, Norway and Denmark will deliver 65 planes. 0 from the U.S.

Sad, but true. Counter Iran. But also give Ukraine the weapons they need to combat an even bigger menace.