US has a massive income mismatch problem. Take away govt xfers (which Uncle Sam is doing) what's left is so little private income that something has to give.

I don't think people realize just how bad this is.

It's all been covered up by govt 'aid.'

youtu.be/nUP5SjY_o3U

The only semi-solid conclusion you can draw from Q1 US GDP weakness is that last year's 'boom' was actually transitory and bought mainly by govt debt. That was never going to be sustainable and is sure wasn't inflationary.

youtu.be/nUP5SjY_o3U

The real question about Republic First is why now. Loan come due? Was it BTFP draw it couldn't pay back?

Or deposit flight? If deposits, it's not higher interest from MMFs.

Total deposit liabilities have plunged across all banks in April.
youtu.be/i3v1t292JeU

It's not like banks are actually buying the soft landing, either, re-risking their balance sheets. On the contrary, they're still cutting bank on CnI lending (huge cyclical clue) and even consumer loans in recent weeks.

youtu.be/i3v1t292JeU

Banks drained of cash going back to March. The latest weekly decline is nearly $100 bln and is seasonally adjusted, so it isn't due to tax payments (you can see that by how cash behaves in prior years at mid-Apr). Deposits down, cash down, Republic First does down.…

Jeffrey P. Snider Thought you'd appreciate this meme I made recently. #steveemigmemes (public domain photo)

Jeffrey P. Snider Perspective?

It's another huge 'coincidence' that energy use radically changed after August 2007 just like jobs, GDP, and everything else.

Again, if economy is growing you use more energy regardless of price. If energy use isn't growing, then there is no economic growth. PERIOD.…

damn Jeffrey P. Snider WTF Happened in 1971?

With copper's big rally recently, you'd think it would be an indication of reflation. One way to tell is copper-to-gold. Should be rebounding sharply.

Nope.

Gold has outpaced copper and is at least keeping up with its short run jump.

Not reflation at all, just confirming…

While UST yields have stabilized and German rates haven't moved, there IS a very aggressive move in bonds right now and it's been going on nonstop for almost five months. There is nothing good associated with this and it is not about PBOC rate cuts.

youtu.be/DMZSBuEBnkM

To begin with, goods prices continue to be thoroughly disinflationary. Even outside energy, there are no price pressures in goods where there would be if inflation was happening. Instead, prices down two straight quarters in a row.

youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y

Govt payments go way beyond the 'social benefits' disbursed in 2020-21. Full transfers have been massively elevated since the early part of 2021, just hundreds of billions in handouts galore. Several trillion in excess of the pre-pandemic baseline.
youtu.be/PSOc5uracb4

Japanese govt knows it's pointless to conduct interventions which is why they rarely happen. Why else did they make a huge stink at 152 as if going below was the end of the world only to sit and watch as it plunged to 160. They baited themselves.

youtu.be/oF6C-OCgs8c

Not trying to read into the tea leave to much. But I was quite constructive on the price action Wed March 20, looking to cap the retracement after a big Q4 move. That t didn’t happen obviously. Now I’m quite worried the move up still has some leg.
Jeffrey P. Snider George Gammon

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One big reason why disinflation seems to be taking so long is because Uncle Sam is subsidizing the price changes with massive transfers, the same price changes the initial transfers largely caused.

Xfers still aren't enough for an actual recovery.

youtu.be/6Bu2DHZUd4Y

The scale of govt 'support' to the economy even now is unimaginable. And it sounds like a good thing; Uncle Sam handing out trillions to keep the economy afloat. But if you have to hand out trillions to keep the economy afloat, it really isn't going well.
youtu.be/PSOc5uracb4

Japanese govt finally decided they had enough of the yen making fools of their constant threats. So, MoF intervenes only to be a made a bigger fool. Got to keep feeding the media its myths about govt 'authority.'

youtu.be/oF6C-OCgs8c