I’m very excited and proud of my Columbia Economics PhD student Wendy Morrison ! Next year she will be joining the Minneapolis Fed as their Junior Scholar Post-doc, and after that she will join the Duke University economics department as an Assistant Professor! 🎉🎉💃🏻

A model in which households make decisions according to a dual-process framework explains why prices rise quickly when costs increase (rockets) but fall slowly when costs fall(feathers), from @sergiorebelo6, Santana, and Teles nber.org/papers/w32214

Reminder about the Call for Papers for the 10th edition of the Annual Conference of Romanian Academic Economists ermas.ro, EconAcademia. Held July 24-26, 2024 in Cluj-Napoca, Romania. Submission deadline April 21. ermas.ro/2024/240124_Cf…

A quantitative model with heterogeneity, uncertainty, and frictions to account for the secular decline in the real rate, increase in equity premium, and relative scarcity of debt, from Cosmin Ilut, Pavel Krivenko, and Martin Schneider nber.org/papers/w32198

Embedding smooth diagnostic expectations in a real business cycle model accounts for overreaction and overconfidence as well as key properties of the business cycle, from Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, and Hikaru Saijo nber.org/papers/w32152

In June 2024 (24-28) NHH Department of Economics is organizing a PhD course on Expectations in Macroeconomics in Bergen, Norway. The course will be taught by professor Cosmin L. Ilut (Duke) Cosmin Ilut and is open for all PhD students. Registration deadline: June 1. sites.google.com/view/nhh-macro…

În sfârșit, după ani și ani..., o alegere serioasă în materie de reprezentant al României la Fondul Monetar Internațional: economie.hotnews.ro/stiri-finante_…

Succes, Mihai Mihai Copaciu!

“A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation,” joint work with Leonardo Melosi and renato_faccini is now published in the QJE:
academic.oup.com/qje/article-ab…

``We integrate the diagnostic expectations paradigm into general equilibrium macro models. The feedback effect between actions and beliefs generates endogenous boom-bust cycles.''

From Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut and Hikaru Saijo:

restud.com/paper/diagnost…

2023 ERMAS conference: July 26-28, 2023, Bucharest.
Organizers: NBR (BNR) and ASE (@ASE_Bucuresti)
Keynotes: M. De Nardi, David M. Drukker, Camelia M. Kuhnen, Gianluca Violante.

Also for non-Romanian ec.
Submit your paper by March 31st.

ermas.ro/2023/

Our paper on game theory and how professional tennis players serve is now forthcoming at Quantitative Economics!

We find that tennis players are really good at playing mixed Nash equilibrium strategies on their serves, but not perfect. 🧵

👉 Federico Bennett (Federico Bennett)
🎓 Duke Economics
📄 'Do They Know What I Know? Ambiguous high-order Beliefs and the cross-section of employment growth'
federicobennett.com

Happy and proud about this work, bridging cognitive psychology with economics. We learned a lot in the process. We hope it can be used as a building block to better understand imperfect, but constrained optimal, decision-making in economic models.

Our paper, “Diagnostic Business Cycles” with Francesco Bianchi and Cosmin Ilut is now accepted at The Review of Economic Studies! A short 🧵 that summarizes what the paper is about:

In my work with Cosmin Ilut Leonardo Melosi Anna Rog Ranato Faccini, we show that beliefs matter a great deal. If perceptions about central bank independence shift, increasing rates might lead to fiscal stagflation

Bridges psychology lit on reasoning as System 1 (automatic/associative) and System 2 (analytical), with the economics tools of mental info acquisition subject to costly cognition. Endogenous, policy-variant cognitive biases emerge. Predict high MPC of rich + Hand-to-Mouth agents.

Some personal news : I’ll be joining Duke Economics in the fall as AP with my husband (he’s a Twitter lurker, no handle). Sad to leave so many awesome colleagues but excited to meet new ones . T-2 months to bring inflation to 2% 😂😂

A survey on ambiguity emphasizes recent applications in macroeconomics and finance that exploit the insight that ambiguity can generate first-order welfare losses from uncertainty, from Cosmin Ilut and Martin Schneider nber.org/papers/w29915