On the new Net Assessment, we talked about Jack Watling's Foreign Affairs article, 'American Aid Alone Won't Save Ukraine.' US assistance is on the way! Yay! But Ukraine faces formidable challenges that must be dealt with comprehensively and immediately. warontherocks.com/2024/05/debati…

A good post on why SIGINT agencies can't just switch targets on a dime. An agency 'has to expend significant resource to maintain the environmental information that enables it to turn into an intelligence producer when a target turns active' siginthistorian.blogspot.com/2024/05/enviro…

Excited to share my latest article: 'Russia’s Declining Satellite Reconnaissance Capabilities and Its Implications for Security and International Stability.' From intel failures in Ukraine to global security impact: Intl Jrnl of Intelligence & CounterIntelligence doi.org/10.1080/088506…

Since the Skripal affair in 2018, there has only been one Attache in Moscow and London. This expulsion will almost certainly lead to expulsion of the UK DA, a total break in mil-mil relations between P5 members.

Not great or unexpected. Unclear what happens next or when.

Recently, our Global Fellow Spencer P. Boyer sat down with @jack_watling on his new report for @rusi_org and The Wilson Center on 'Mass Precision Strike: Designing UAV Complexes for Land Forces.'

Watch the full discussion ▶️ bit.ly/4ad12Qr

Ukraine’s domestic security service, the SBU, claims to have uncovered a network of Russian FSB agents who planned to assassinate president Volodymyr Zelensky and other top political and intelligence officials. Two of the agents allegedly involved were colonels in the department…

Wer es verpasst hat: Wir haben eine massive Sicherheitslücke bei Bundeswehr und Bundesregierung aufgedeckt. Die Bundeswehr hat ihren Webex-Server vom Internet genommen. Der Meetingraum von Olaf Scholz steht aber auch heute noch offen. 1/2
#Cybersecurity #bundeswehr

American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine
To Survive, Kyiv Must Build New Brigades—and Force Moscow to Negotiate, I wrote for Foreign Affairs but was not in a position post. Outlining the challenges that need to be overcome to alter the current trajectory. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/americ…

A US crackdown on banks financing trade in goods for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – and the fear of secondary sanctions – has made it much more difficult to move money in and out of Russia.

Latest with ⁦Chris Cook⁩ ⁦Anastasia Stognei⁩ ft.com/content/b4a556…

“We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence. Russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage” ft.com/content/c88509…

Not all lessons from Ukraine will apply to NATO militaries, but this is one that will. Russian Orlan ISR UAVs are not very sophisticated but they are cheap and easy to produce. That means Russia produces them in large numbers and they are expendable. But many of the current…

Lucky Russian serviceman dodges an FPV drone attacking his position.

The paper below on LLM use in intelligence analysis was pub'd by GCHQ chief data scientist Adam C & Richard Carter last September. This week I heard them present more on it at The Alan Turing Institute. What was interesting was that Adam C struck an even more sceptical note on intel uses (1/3)

Accused Russian spy 'led plot to burn down building in London' telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/2…

Exclusive: A Royal Navy destroyer has shot down a ballistic missile for the first time in 30 years by hitting an Iranian-made Houthi weapon fired at a merchant vessel thetimes.co.uk/article/10421d…

After four Germans were arrested this week for allegedly spying for Chinese secret services, I was summoned to the MFA today. A quite telling move – but, after all, a good opportunity to explain a few things:
1) We do not tolerate espionage in Germany, regardless of (1/2)

Cool. Not only have I just received this new history of Wagner by Ilya Barabanov and Denis Korotkov but ⁦⁦Meduza⁩ sent me a signed copy. Look forward to digging in.

One for the diary. RUSI's Land Warfare Conference 2024, run in partnership with the British Army 🇬🇧's The Chief of the General Staff will be held in London from 25-26 June: my.rusi.org/events/rusi-la…

CSIS colleagues Maria Snegovaya Max Bergmann Tina Dolbaia Nick Fenton (+ Samuel Bendett ) have a new report out on Russia’s defense industry below 👇

Well, well well. The deputy defense minister in charge of military housing, who owns multiple European residences and wears luxury goods, is arrested for taking bribes. The interesting thing about this of course is why now, and who did he irritate? /1 svoboda.org/a/zamministra-…