A second Trump term could intensify the rivalry between the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia so that regional countries can no longer delicately dance between the giants, warns Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/44CrSju

SE Asia is not prepared for how challenging a second Trump term would be: Second Trump Term Could Be Disastrous for Southeast Asia on.cfr.org/3y5cZdo via Council on Foreign Relations

My latest for The Japan Times - how a second Trump term could be a disaster for SE Asian countries, and the actual end of hedging, SE Asia's specialty. japantimes.co.jp/commentary/202…

What a second Trump term could mean for Southeast Asia japantimes.co.jp/commentary/202…

Second Trump Term Could Be Disastrous for Southeast Asia on.cfr.org/3y5cZdo via Council on Foreign Relations

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Once masterful in planning leadership transitions, Vietnam appears to have no clear plan after Nguyen Phu Trong is gone, writes Josh Kurlantzick.
on.cfr.org/3QtoL7X

As Vuong Dinh Hue Resigns, Vietnamese Politics Get Even Messier on.cfr.org/3UKiI1q via Council on Foreign Relations

It is getting tougher, even for a country with the wealth, significant diplomatic influence, and skilled diplomatic corps that Singapore possesses, to hedge between China and the United States, writes Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/3QqA7cD

Singapore is entering its 4g generation in a more precarious regional security state than ever. Can a PM Wong navigate it? Singapore’s New Prime Minister Lawrence Wong Faces Challenges From Day One on.cfr.org/3Jydwav via Council on Foreign Relations

Even ASEAN states that were on the fence about the junta, like Thailand, now seem to be almost predicting its demise, or at least preparing for it, writes Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/3xRCE9w

And A Hue We Go!

My thoughts on the brutal takedown of Vuong Dinh Hue, who had been the leading candidate to succeed Nguyen Phu Trong as CPV Party Chief at the 14th. I’ve never seen #Vietnamese party politics as this vicious or institutionally damaging. rfa.org/english/commen…

Monday is the 56th anniversary of the execution of one of the most inspiring public intellectuals in the history of the PRC, Lin Zhao. To commemorate this day, minjiandanganguan has put together most of her work and made it available free to download.

China’s Battle Against Air Pollution: An Update on.cfr.org/3U5POHm via Council on Foreign Relations

After two decades in office, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will pass the baton to the ruling party’s chosen successor, who faces a complex geopolitical environment & growing challenges to the party’s leadership at home, says Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/3QofC0f

Regarding diplomatic relations, while ASEAN has not covered itself in glory since the coup, there seems to be a shift among some Southeast Asian states in their views of the junta in Myanmar and its longevity, writes Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/4b74sVE

Singapore’s New Prime Minister Lawrence Wong Faces Challenges From Day One on.cfr.org/3Jydwav via Council on Foreign Relations

The Myanmar military seems to have reached a crossroads, in which several events suggest the bottom could be falling out for the junta—and that both Myanmar citizens and outsiders should prepare for an endgame, writes Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/49Uv5Mm

The Myanmar army is experiencing a rapid rise in defections and military losses, posing questions about the continued viability of the junta’s grip on power, writes Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/3UgOh1i

With all these surrenders in various parts of the country, the opposition often depletes the army’s personnel and captures a wide range of weapons. The junta’s demise may be coming soon, writes Josh Kurlantzick. on.cfr.org/4d4yivT