I wrote on the most recent Baltic GPS jamming. Thanks to Markus Jonsson for sharing their data, which triangulates the jammers’ location to near St Petersburg. Other sources say there is evidence of Russian jamming there. Most likely force protection. economist.com/the-economist-…

A good piece on the state of the Russian economy, by Carnegie's Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/politika/92326. The big picture is that the Russian economy is not growing: the increase in war spending is via redistribution from peoples' consumption (via drop in import and social spending).

China's enablement of Russia's defence industry is stark: economist.com/graphic-detail…

According to DeepState UA, Russian forces have captured Berdychi and advanced west of the village, occupied 80% of Ocheretyne, and advanced in Kyslivka.
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27APR24 Avdiivka sector ORBAT and operational thread. Over the past week RuAF has achieved series of local successes on Avdiivka sector. These began with sudden and unexpected penetration into village of Ocheretyne on 22APR24. 1/20

Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid visibility. 🧵Thread

Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar.
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Good thread by Rob.

Latest Russia Contingency is out. We discuss the current situation along the front, implications of the supplemental passing, immediate challenges, and prospects. War on the Rocks warontherocks.com/episode/therus…

According to Politico, the US approved the delivery of 300-kilometer range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March, which Ukraine has already employed twice. Additional 300-km range ATACMS will be included in the new aid package signed today. Alex Ward
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.DeepState UA 's summary from today.
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Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.
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One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.

In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/

We often focus on high-end weapons for Ukraine, but Ukraine also needs many basic systems like M113 or armored humvees in large numbers. Providing more M113 is a simple way to reduce Ukrainian KIA/WIA.

New report by RUSI on mass precision strike and future development of UAS/UAVs. ⁦Jack Watling⁩ ⁦Justin Bronk⁩ rusi.org/explore-our-re…

New CNA report out on the Russian General Staff’s role in arms control by Anya Fink cna.org/reports/2024/0…

Very pleased to be publishing Mass Precision Strike: Designing UAV Complexes for Land Forces - co-authored with my colleague Justin Bronk at RUSI. rusi.org/explore-our-re…