Given Iran’s past statements, if Israel did attack Iranian territory, then the regime is bound to respond. But damage assessment will have a lot to do with Iran’s calculus. No doubt though, folks like Hajizadeh will be pressing for retaliation. Khamenei is more cautious

I'm relieved the target doesn't appear to be the nuclear facility in Isfahan, though the intended message may be 'it could be next time.' Definite potential for further escalation.

To keep up-to-date with developments involving Iran (and Russia!) follow the multilingual Nicole!

Iran’s response to the Damascus strike was a massive escalation.

What we’re seeing so far tonight is a very restrained response from Israel with a poignant message: Israel can hit anywhere it wants in Iran and doesn’t need 350 missiles and drones to do it.

After Tehran's unprecedented strike on Israeli territory, it was *inevitable* that Israel would hit Iran directly in response. Iranian leaders must have anticipated retaliation.

What happens next—esp in Washington—is crucial to avoiding a wider war.

foreignaffairs.com/israel/how-ame…

Does not sound like nuclear sites were targeted. Military targets only. US was notified in advance. Escalation was not the objective.

Israel demonstrating its capability to reach inside Iran at will. That is the step taken tonight to begin restoring deterrence.

Join FP Live today at 11:00am ET for a discussion with experts Suzanne Maloney and Ronen Bergman about the volatile dynamics in the Middle East following Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. Register here for this free event: foreignpolicy.com/live/iran-isra…

China's exports to Russia via third countries are up massively. China is an outlier in this respect. Others use trade diversion as a substitute for direct exports to Russia, but China's Russia exports are also up massively. Raises questions about what goods go via Central Asia...

Thanks to Foreign Affairs for the opportunity to debate interpretations & discuss the way forward after Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel w/Dan Kurtz-Phelan & Ali Vaez. Very grateful to Kate Brannen & FA tech wizards who made it seemless despite my wonky internet connection.

Traders have concluded Iran will not risk any disruption of its exports; the United States will not risk higher oil prices in an election year; and the United States will restrain the next round of responses by Israel

An Iranian intelligence ship that's been linked to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea has returned home to Iran amid threats from Israel bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Politics

1/ As part of Brookings Foreign Policy #GlobalChina initiative to interrogate fundamental questions about America's approach to China/Taiwan, we assembled a diverse group of experts to examine whether the US needs to change its policies toward Taiwan. (Short 🧵) brookings.edu/articles/shoul…

Horrific videos coming in from inside of Iran. Khamenei’s Islamic regime has sent a heavy presence of morality police onto the streets, as they assault, beat and imprison innocent women for “improper hijab”

Support the people of Iran in their fight for freedom & democracy.

What remains of Gaza’s economy is now defined by abject need—humanitarian aid in the short term and reconstruction assistance down the road. What are the economic prospects for eventual reconstruction? Adam Tooze explains: foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/12/the…

If they oppress their own people, they will not liberate yours.

What is decadence? I don’t know. I can’t define it in abstract terms - yet. But I think I can recognise it when I see it. And I am looking at it now.

(With apologies to Kenneth Clark).

Superb essay by my colleague Tara_Varma 👇

“Containment,” “de-escalation,” “deterrence” and “risk management”... I hear only tactics, not strategies.
[Biden] believes Iran is a problem, but doesn’t appear to have a coherent plan for how to solve it. politico.com/news/magazine/…

Absolutely horrifying past several days of repression against women in Iran. A bus full of women rounded up by morality police, heard being tasered in this video.

No, Newsweek, it's really not.

newsweek.com/israel-iran-nu…

New: There have been over 130 “direct attacks” on US Navy warships and merchant vessels in the Middle East over the last six months, Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro says. He adds that the Navy is approaching a $1 billion tab in munitions that need to be replenished because of defensive actions.