📺 ‘What we have are two parties saying they’re going to spend more on defence without telling us what the cost of that is going to be, either in terms of less money elsewhere or higher taxes.’

Paul Johnson on what the recent announcements on defence spending really mean.

🗣️ 'It’s hard to avoid the impression that our arrangements for local government were written, while slightly inebriated, on the back of an envelope.”

👉 In The Times, Paul Johnson reflects on an Expert Factor ep with Anand Menon & Hannah White.

thetimes.co.uk/article/counci…

Two big findings:

1) Real terms health spending has grown less quickly than planned in 2019, despite a pandemic intervening;

2) In real terms health spending has risen less quickly than usual. But it's risen much faster than usual as a % of GDP. One of many costs of poor growth

A failure of governance.
Central govt subsidies to councils have become increasingly arbitrary. Allocations are based on data a decade, and in some cases several decades, old. Reform was due by 2019, now after election.
Longer it's left harder it is, esp when no money around.

Our absurdly centralised governance leads us to ignore the real challenges facing local government: cuts through 2010s, huge increases in costs and demand for adult and child social services, & a hopelessly out of date funding system

thetimes.co.uk/article/13191e…

Just listened back to this - it's great. Do listen.

I've also just listened back to brilliant podcast we did as part of 'the IFS zooms in' with David Phillips and Tony Travers on local govt finance. Way we finance local govt is even madder.

ifs.org.uk/articles/are-c…

Just listened back to this - it's great. Do listen.

I've also just listened back to brilliant podcast we did as part of 'the IFS zooms in' with David Phillips and Tony Travers on local govt finance. Way we finance local govt is even madder.

ifs.org.uk/articles/are-c…

Couldn't be more relevant to current economic policy issues here in the UK.

Really delighted to be welcoming Heidi L. Williams to be giving our annual lecture. Latest in a long line of thought leaders in the world of economics to be giving @theifs annual lecture.

This is very exciting. A new venture for @theifs led by Imran Rasul funded by Nuffield Foundation

An effective justice system is vital to social and economic welfare. An extension of our work, now possible with more data available.

Keep an eye out for results over next few years.

This may be my favourite podcast I've recorded. I somehow get to attack overpromoted spads and almost bury industrial strategy before praising it. Hope you like it.

Public sector productivity 6.8% down on Q4 2019 is pretty worrying. Huge drop.

Consistent with what we know: genuine increases in spending, but struggling public services. E.g. activity in hospitals nowhere near reflecting additional resources.

I see Paul Johnson is giving the Clare College Distinguished Lecture on Economics and Public Policy this evening. The lecture is being streamed by Clare College - where I studied Economics in the late 70s - so it can be viewed online: clare.cam.ac.uk/conferencing-e…

'If you are a spending minister the tactics you can use really depends on the political situation and the political salience of the issue.'

David Gauke on the political capital different government departments have.

Listen to the podcast: linktr.ee/ifszoomsin

Delighted to giving the Clare distinguished lecture in Cambridge this Thursday. Details here clare.cam.ac.uk/conferencing-e… Do sign up.

I'll be speaking about the IFS Deaton review of inequalities and will be joined by Tim Gardam of Nuffield Foundation who so generously funded the work.

In which I get quite grumpy explaining how govt announced increase in defence spending of £75bn at cost of £4.4bn.

Misleading, inconsistent & opaque way of describing an important policy.

Labour are no better - promise to reach 2.5% of GDP 'when conditions allow' is meaningless

Thanks Stephen.

'There's always a little bit of a game played between bits of the NHS, the Department of Health and the Treasury.'

Why does the NHS never seem to stick to its budget?

Paul Johnson discusses on the latest Expert Factor with Anand Menon Hannah White instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/expert…

Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson David Gauke Giles Wilkes Shame content like this does not get more engagement. well worth a listen my take away thought 'what does a weak Treasury look like'

Essential reading on IFS new Sure Start research from Paul Johnson, but do try and look at the full report as well.

A new report from National Audit Office estimates that 85,000 new childcare places will be needed by September 2025 to deliver the government's new early education entitlements. CEPEO's Claire Crawford asks how prepared we are in our latest blog post 👨‍👧👇
blogs.ucl.ac.uk/cepeo/2024/04/…