Ira Joseph Center on Global Energy Policy The report in which the charts appear. Contains summaries of earlier reports examining some of the reasons why host counties fail to prosper. It's basically 'the resource curse' quantified. ohiorivervalleyinstitute.org/wp-content/upl…

Ira Joseph Precisely what puzzles me in recent EU gas buying spree. We are once again looking at supply worries, whereas bull markets are driven by demand. Supply premium fade in due time, a decent chunk of money is committed already on gas upside.

More evidence that if gas/ #LNG needs to be imported, the future for gas is not as bright in baseload power generation. Renewables/batteries are putting a dent in gas demand investments & while data centers may need 24/7 power, they don’t necessarily need gas to provide it. #ONGT

One of the most accurate forecasts I’ve ever received was from a long-term planner at a large Chinese state firm who told me to save myself some time & just pencil in 10-20 bcm/yr of gas production growth thru 2035. That was about 15 years ago & it’s been pretty spot on. #ONGT

One important distinction. Data centers need power 24/7, but data centers do not run at peak capacity 24/7. The amount of daylight (or nightlight!) between these two operating numbers can be quite significant. Center on Global Energy Policy

I hadn't realized how stark this divide was until looking up the data for 2023. Takes welcome.

The key question for boxed in US gas producers like EQT is whether they want to put their money into telling the foreign #LNG story or the domestic & local AI story. Which will produce the higher netback and need less capital investment to make happen? Perhaps bet on both? #ONGT

An “always on” data center does not mean the physical data center always needs to be on. It just needs to provide application availability no matter what the technical problem. Another data center can supplement the work. Not sure if high gas or power prices constitutes a problem

On Monday, CGEP Founding Director Jason Bordoff joined the Milken Institute's expert discussion on harnessing the power of renewables to enhance energy efficiency and foster resilient infrastructure.

Missed the #MIGlobal panel?

Watch here 👇
milkeninstitute.org/panel/15484/br…

LNG Investor 💥Energy Flux💥 Ira Joseph He Yiyong All Things LNG Laura Page Ruth Liao TheLNGAnalyst Tom Haddon Sergio Chapa Javier Blas Jake Horslen LNG Tomasz Włodek Susan Sakmar Stephen Stapczynski LNG Enthusiast Sorry, let's try that again. By 2030:

- Powergen adds +10-18 bcf/d
- LNG adds + 15 bcf/d

Total additional gas demand in 2030 will be in the 25-33 bcf/d range

Price impact depends on supply response and transmission constraints

My adjacent take is power demand is going to become much more fluid globally, so it’s going to be difficult to peg where the AI-related power boom will occur & how quickly it will move around to chase price. And as John Arnold mentioned, do not sleep on efficiency gains.

Not understanding why, if the future of European gas security is so dire, is the signing of HOAs being rolled out like they are SPAs? They are not. The SPA drought of 2024 continues despite the US #LNG pause. Rest of world is struggling to take advantage of this opening. #ONGT

Germany secures more LNG amid wider energy security push
🇩🇪🤝🇦🇪

🚢 EnBW will buy 0.6 million tons/year from Adnoc's upcoming Ruwais export project for 15 years
🏃 Europe is increasingly turning to LNG to replace Russian pipeline gas, with companies signing more long-term deals

So, does a gas-fired AI boom mean US LNG goes bust?

More 👉 energyflux.news/p/data-centres…

CC Ira Joseph He Yiyong All Things LNG Laura Page Ruth Liao TheLNGAnalyst Tom Haddon Sergio Chapa Javier Blas Jake Horslen LNG Tomasz Włodek Susan Sakmar Stephen Stapczynski LNG Enthusiast…

My colleague is correct. Russia’s only way back in the door via the magic of price. It’s how they will lure European buyers to consider lobbying for it even if Brussels resists. More Russian gas exports will return, though the EU will cap volume. Capitalism finds a way. #ONGT

Russia faces challenges in reviving its gas sales, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.

CGEP scholar Anne-Sophie Corbeau argues that Russia will have to sell to poorer countries, offering generous contracts.

Whatever you like, don’t like, or wish was further commercialized, the world is going to be floating in cheap solar, batteries and gas by the late 2020s through early 2040s. H/t mike andrade “🎶And if you can't be with the one you love, honey, love the one you're with 🎶”

A lot has been written about the coming power demand from AI data centers. The actual impact will be determined by a big unknown, future efficiency gains.

Growth doesn't always equal increased load. US power demand was flat from 2007-22 as efficiency gains offset economic…

These types of slopes will do nothing to spur #LNG demand growth unless the underlying assumption is lower Brent prices, which i doubt. Article asserts bid ask spread on contracts remains wide. Not sure who caves here. It all makes me bullish on coal demand. #ONGT

“buyers are seeking to lower price slopes not just for converting term sheets to SPAs, but also for existing LNG contr. that are due for periodic price reviews, and for the renewal of expiring long-term contr. that constitute actual price renegotiations, especially in North Asia”