This is perhaps the central issue now: whether Hamas accepts these assurances from U.S., Egypt and Qatar or whether they will still require an explicit Israeli agreement on the permanence of a ceasefire.

How is Washington navigating the difficult task of promoting democracy abroad while facing its own challenges to its democratic institutions?

🎙 Rachel Kleinfeld discusses with Crisis Group's Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper:
crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

The question of permanence, along with the return of population to the North, represented the key sticking points in talks. Hamas has apparently sought more than indirect U.S. assurances that a ceasefire would represent an end to the war. This would be a big step.

In 2011 as the Arab uprisings gathered steam, the first impulse of the old autocratic order across the region was to blame foreigners and foreign support and to suggest that protestors were doing the bidding of external foes.

I wrote in Just Security about how U.S. #sanctions can hamper #peace .

The U.S. should use sanctions if they have a chance of making wars less brutal or bringing them to a close. But without reforms to blunt sanctions’ negative consequences, their effectiveness will be limited.

To clear up reporting on application of the Leahy laws: They are not 'sanctions', not in the legal or policy sense. They are not a punishment. No foreign force is entitled to free stuff from the US and no longer getting free stuff isn't a punishment.

nytimes.com/2024/04/21/wor…

What potential risk factors could contribute to political violence in the run-up and aftermath of the November elections?

🎙 Rachel Kleinfeld sits down with Crisis Group's Stephen Pomper and Michael Hanna on Ripple Effect:
crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

On Ripple Effect, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper talk with Rachel Kleinfeld about how we should understand polarisation in U.S. society.
crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

Richard Atwood, Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין and Michael Hanna assess the exchange of fire between #Iran and #Israel and U.S. efforts to curtail tensions in the region.
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

🎧 NEW EPISODE | Out of the Shadows: Exchanges of Fire Between Iran and Israel

Richard Atwood talks with Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel لهيب هيجل and Rob Blecher about the exchange of strikes between #Iran and #Israel and the implications for #Gaza .
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Please tune in and hear Rachel Kleinfeld's incisive commentary on polarization and political violence in the US!! Sobering analysis *and* concrete recs for how US politics can get to a better place.

Huge thanks to Rachel for joining Michael Hanna and myself for a great convo.

Always awesome to talk to the brilliant folks at International Crisis Group - and very worrisome when they decide they need to cover the United States. Our podcast: crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

🎧 NEW EPISODE | Polarisation, Political Violence and the U.S. Elections

On Ripple Effect, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper talk with Rachel Kleinfeld about the health of U.S. democracy and the risk of political violence surrounding the November elections.

crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

We’ve collectively become inured to escalation risks. Many people have drawn the wrong lessons from the close calls.

As Israel weighs what to do, the rules of engagement between it & Iran are being rewritten in perilous ways. Still, further escalation is not inevitable. All sides are now in a position to step back from confrontation. They should do so.  crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no… @crisisgroup

A reasonable assumption. And even if you thought otherwise, it’s an absolutely massive risk to assume flawless air defenses. U.S. backchannel diplomacy has been useful here, but it’s simply foolhardy to understand this attack as mere play-acting.

Since October 7 the most likely pathways for regional escalation have been misperception and miscalculation and that remains the case, regardless of intent.

NEW STATEMENT | Sudan: A Year of War

With millions facing famine, diplomats should push the two main belligerents much harder to accept a ceasefire.
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…

In our new report, ‘Stopping Famine in Gaza’, we provide granular data through mapping and satellite imagery on the extent of the damage and destruction and the severity of the food insecurity crisis.

Our key findings: 1/9
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Crisis Group's report on how Israel's war-fighting strategy has put Gaza on the edge of famine @crisisgroup crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no… (1/7)