It will forever remain a mystery who the anonymous reviewer is. 🧐🕵️

Mon, May 13:

Join AEI's Andrew G. Biggs Alex Brill & Sita Slavov for a conference on Federal Debt: The Baseline and Options for Reform

Featuring experts from Penn Wharton Budget Model, The Brookings Institution, Burch Center for Tax Policy & Public Finance, Bipartisan Policy Center, & more
aei.org/events/federal…

Another way to reduce the trade deficit that I have not seen suggested by Cass et al. is to increase saving.

We wouldn't need so much foreign saving if we had a bunch more of our own!

Will be on a panel at this event - please join us in-person or virtually!

aei.org/events/federal…

Lump sum pension withdrawals make formal sector work more attractive and encourage early retirement, from @carlamorenoecon and @sita.slavov nber.org/papers/w32380

You keep using that word - 'freedom.' I do not think it means what you think it means.

BREAKING: Reports are coming in that the moon has censored the sun. FIRE is looking into it and stands by to assist if any other celestial bodies face censorship.

1/11 📢New NBER working paper with Rahi Abouk Sungbin Park & #JohhEarle 📢

Did state COVID-19 vaccine mandates for workers worsen labor shortages in the healthcare industry?

nber.org/papers/w32286?…

As I've been saying for years now: Republicans say they want to balance the budget — but meanwhile they have ruled out every mathematical path for doing so washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…

Four years ago today:
-School districts across the U.S. declared a rest-of-school-year shutdown.
-1st COVID bill passed, Trump demanded >$500B more.
-Wash state turned a soccer field into an emergency 200-bed COVID facility.
-You hoarded toilet paper.

Yeah, I'm better off now.

A puzzle:

Imagine you begin a journey in Seattle WA, facing exactly due east. Then start traveling forward, in a straight line along the Earth's surface.

Nikki Haley is, by far, the adult in the room on Social Security.

But what she's proposing would fix maybe 1/10th of the long-term funding gap. We've left it far too late for reforms like this, unfortunately.

Congratulations to Shanthi Nataraj and Sita Slavov for their second consecutive win for artistic achievement in the @The_Econ5k! I hope they keep this going! youtube.com/watch?v=nWxhBJ…

Once again, Shanthi Nataraj and I are aiming for artistic merit rather than speed in the ECON5k … we call this one, “The Long Run”

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist, has a rule where he never says yes to anything on the spot.

People-pleasing had him making too many commitments.

He says something to the effect of: 'Thanks for the invite. I don't say yes to anything on the spot, but…

Kinda nuts that an obvious book-banning attempt is getting such rosy coverage because the challengers are on the left.

In fairness, the story isn’t *completely* one-sided but never in a million billion years would a wapo piece about right-wing book suppression end like this.

🧵

Newly uncovered threats to causal interpretation of Difference in Difference estimates, and the solutions the literature has proposed with step-by-step examples, code, and a checklist, from Freedman, Alex Hollingsworth, Kosali Simon, Coady Wing, and Yozwiak nber.org/papers/w31842

headphones

How does this get published in Scientific American!!

The first part is flat out wrong.
The second part on pacers is a gross misunderstanding of elite running.

This is just embarrassingly bad.

I’m not here to debate student loan forgiveness.

Rather, I just want to state what should be obvious: this policy has a cost and thus “Benefits everybody. Hurts nobody” is simply incorrect.