LOOK AT THIS PHOTOGRAPH

A message from the Cavs

The five bellwether districts — represented by Caraveo (D), Slotkin (D), Pappas (D), Molinaro (R) and Wild (D).

CRYTSAL BALL: Of the 435 House districts that will be in place this year, only 56 have voted for something other than staight-party Dem/R in pres. races since 2008. Just 5 have picked the correct winner in each pres. election since then.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/di…

New Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: A more detailed look at TX-28 following Henry Cuellar's indictment (we already moved it from Likely D to Leans D) and more thorny questions about what might happen if the House & Senate had to resolve the pres election.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/no…

Wonky Part II, from Kyle Kondik for Larry Sabato Center for Politics at UVA Rep. Cuellar (D, TX-28) situation, ratings shift to Leans-D. and 12th Amendment's ambiguity+ possible 269/269 EV tie. 'This whole situation would be, to use a fancy constitutional law phrase, bonkers' Cats and dogs.

Crystal Ball: A more detailed look at TX-28 following Henry Cuellar's indictment (we already moved it from Likely D to Leans D) and more thorny questions about what might happen if the House and Senate had to resolve the presidential election centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/no…

NEW in Inside Congress: The critical difference that could save Cuellar

Daniella Diaz and I on the difference in how Hill colleagues have treated his alleged malfeasance so far:

politico.com/newsletters/in…

The Cavs just completed the largest Game 7 comeback win in NBA history.

They were down 18 in the 2nd quarter.

In which James Wallner and I take various shots at the Senate's famous 'milk precedent.'

courthousenews.com/got-milk-rumor…

Crystal Ball House rating change - Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. Could see Toss-up in future, clearly lots of moving pieces. Will dive into this in next issue of the CB

FLASH: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) & his wife have been indicted

Justice Dept alleges they accepted at least $598,000 in bribes from two foreign entities:

1) oil & gas company wholly owned & controlled by Government of Azerbaijan

2) a bank headquartered in Mexico City'

Like a Tom Edsall book summarized in a :30

Cuellar says he is innocent and will still run for reelection.

quite possible. Obviously we don't know exactly what the indictment is yet.

Cuellar's TX-28 (Laredo/South TX) voted for Clinton 58-39 and Biden 53-46. Cuellar won 57-43 in 2022 in a race that attracted a lot of outside spending. The Blue Dog Cuellar defeated Jessica Cisneros, who ran to his left, narrowly in 2020 and 2022 primaries

there is a runoff for the GOP nomination to face Cuellar (two lightly-funded candidates). The Rs took a real run at Cuellar in 2022 and didn't come close to beating him--maybe this changes the calculus in a region that is also moving away from Ds

BREAKING: Rep. Henry Cuellar is expected to be indicted by the Justice Dept., sources tell NBC News, after his home and campaign office were raided in 2022 as part of a federal investigation. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

I stuck to the outright '08-'20 swing for the article, so this one was left on the cutting room floor.

This shifts everything ~2.8% more Dem (to account for Biden doing that much worse nationally than Obama). Thought some of you may find it interesting.

RED NEVADA

“We’d note Nevada as a state that possibly looks redder than it ‘should’ be..As the state was hit especially hard during the onset of the Great Recession, Obama’s numbers…were likely unnaturally high there in 2008.”