Weekly Report Highlights: topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro…

This week a look at global credit conditions, and then into US credit spreads before a look at the bull vs bear case for Treasuries, and then explore the price (and value) action in Utilities...
topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-macro…

Wealth Destruction: treasuries edition..

Imagine if you moved your portfolio to 100% treasuries during the 2008 financial crisis -- depending on the timing you'd be net-negative now

after 15 years 😳

(including interest received and reinvested!)

$BONDS $TLT $TNX $IEF

Commodities move in Cycles

The sooner you accept that, the sooner you can develop the tools and mental models to navigate commodity markets.

Here's some tips: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/detecting-op…

Take a minute to read how you can apply valuation signals to Multi-Asset investing (and uncover hidden insights that most people miss) --> entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/valuations-f…

Another developed market Central Bank pivots to rate cuts -- Sweden cuts policy rate -25bps to 3.75%

Quite the journey for Swedish interest rates...

Check out out latest monthly Market Cycle Guidebook: topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cycle…

-Instant overview of: economic cycle, policy, valuations
-Market snapshot, views across asset classes
-Over 70 charts on the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe

What do you mean 'Cyclicals' ?

Two very different pathways here...

The truth on Cyclicals vs Defensives (+ the risks and opportunities): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the…

Small vs Large — a Big Valuation Gap: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

Small caps are about as cheap as they get vs large caps.

All those stories and narratives about Large Growth are already in the price, and then some.

Longer-term contrarian minded investors should take note.

From a technical analysis standpoint, one thing more important than bouncing off support is a failed breakdown through support...

In that respect, I would be watching this chart very closely -- so many pockets of the market look very ripe for major rotation

(which would take…

Speaking of so-called 'Cyclicals vs Defensives'

>> Which one of the two lines below would you rather buy?

notes: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the…

Do NOT 'Sell in May' until you read this chart pack (10 charts, and brief but insightful comments + conclusions): chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-ch…
chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-ch…

The Sell-in-May (and Buy-in-Nov) Effect

n.b. it is a thing, but it works different in bull vs bear markets

Triggers, stats, context, and nuance (short read): chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-ch…

Weekly Insights - Edition 157 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-insig…

This week: global markets update, emerging market equities, China, macro radar, ideas table, monthly pack reminder...

'The global cyclicals vs defensives relative performance line recently capped out at the top end of its trend channel — this is something that signaled 3 major market peaks over the past decade.' entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the… by Topdown Charts

ICYMI: Weekly ChartStorm blog post chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

Thanks + follow reco to chart sources
MarketCharts.com
Topdown Charts
Shane C. Murphy
The Chart Report
Michael A. Arouet
Ian Harnett
Andrew Sarna

See: DXY vs GSCI

Conventional wisdom says USD and Commodities are negatively correlated... but at the moment I'd argue they are positively correlated (higher commods = sign of higher growth + driver of higher inflation >> higher-for-longer risk >> supportive to USD)

Chart of the Week - The Trouble With Cyclicals vs Defensives entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the…

Sell in May?

Maybe Sell the US Dollar and Buy WTI Crude oil!

More seasonal signals: chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-ch…

Small vs Large — a Big Valuation Gap: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

Small caps are about as cheap as they get vs large caps.

All those stories and narratives about Large Growth are already in the price, and then some.

Longer-term contrarian minded investors should take note.

Weekly Insights - Edition 157 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-insig…

This week: global markets update, emerging market equities, China, macro radar, ideas table, monthly pack reminder...